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Saturday, January 12, 2013

Dump Europe Now


Thus far in the first hour of the day the market has given up the rally it had in the last hour of the day yesterday, almost perfect symmetry.  So we're back to where things were around 2:30 PM.
If you are a Tom DeMark fan he had some interesting comments reported via Bloomberg yesterday.  Europe if you have not been following has been very strong, especially the most beat up countries like Spain and Italy.  He says yesterday was an exhaustion move and its time to sell (or short I suppose).   Below is a euro stock index and you can see a bull flag formed.  If there is a breakdown below the flag and failure it would be an important thing to note.

As for the U.S. we are on step "12" of this infamous "13"; says there can be a move over 5 year highs to 1490s and then the move is over.   From there he says 5.5% correction – that seems exact but that is the call; it would be about a 80 point drop.  We shall see, keep in mind his last call was to buy China within a few days of its bottom – think he called for something like 47% upside on that one.
“This high could occur as early as tomorrow,” DeMark wrote in an e-mail. “1,492.73 is just shy of psychological 1,500 as most traders are predisposed to look at markets in terms of round numbers and will expect 1,500 to be hit. And just to confound them, expect market to trade not quite to 1,500.”  An advance to 1,492.73 would push the S&P 500 above a four- year intraday high of 1,474.51 reached Sept. 14 and help the index complete a “13 countdown” on the Combo chart, according to DeMark. DeMark’s “countdown” study involves comparing a security’s closing price to its highest or lowest levels two days earlier, with cycles of “exhaustion” forming when a pattern continues 13 times.

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