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Friday, November 30, 2012

Worrying Chart

Fiscal Cliff Is A Free Fall

Chart In Focus
 
November 29, 2012 

In the 1955 movie Rebel Without a Cause, the lead character Jim Stark (James Dean) gets involved in a "Chickie Run", in which teenaged boys with more testosterone than brains race stolen cars toward a cliff.  The idea is to jump out of the car just before it goes flying off the cliff, and whoever jumps out first is deemed to be the "chicken" (coward), and subjected to the derision of his peers.  That scene ends badly for one of the characters whose jacket gets caught on the door handle preventing him from jumping out.

Congress is now fully involved with its own Chickie Run, racing toward the Dec. 31 deadline that the press has dubbed "The Fiscal Cliff", after which mandatory cuts in certain military programs and other spending items will take effect unless Congress and the President act to strike a deal to close the budget deficit.  Some of the players seem intent on getting the other side to jump first, evidently favoring the political victory that they think they would get more than any actual solution to the problem.  Others are voicing the opinion that actually going over the cliff, and letting everyone see the effects of the mandatory tax hikes and spending cuts, would actually be a good thing.  That's about like Jim Stark concluding that it is better to be dead in a car wreck than to be considered a "chicken". 
Over the past 12 months, total federal receipts have amounted to 15.4% of GDP, while total expenditures have been 22.7%.  That's clearly a huge gap, that is going to need some bold action to get those numbers to come back together.  Proponents of big government programs insist that revenues must be increased (AKA tax rates must go up), because they don't want to shrink that expenditures number.  On the other side, a favorite slogan is that "we don't have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem".   
This week's chart offers us some evidence in support of the idea that more revenues from higher tax rates won't actually help.  It shows a comparison between total federal receipts as a percentage of private GDP (factoring out government spending from the GDP numbers) versus real GDP growth.  There is a fairly strong inverse correlation between the two, which means that if federal receipts go up (as a fraction of GDP), then GDP growth goes down. 
Let me say that again, just for emphasis: raising tax receipts (as a percentage of private GDP) is associated with slower or even negative real GDP growth. 
There was one period when that inverse correlation did not really work, and that was during the 1990s when President Clinton was in office, and when higher tax rates and total receipts did not seem to hurt the economy.  That point has led some pundits to take the myopic view that we just need to go back to Clinton's tax rate policies and everything will be fine. 
The problem with that logic is that President Clinton's tax rates were not the only factor affecting the economy during the 1990s.  Clinton rode a huge technology boom, that not only increased economic productivity but also led to huge investments in startup companies.  That decade also saw the Baby Boom generation in its peak entrepreneurial years, whereas now those aging Boomers are starting to slide into retirement rather than starting new companies. 
Furthermore, the corrosive effects of having federal tax receipts up too high really was being felt in the 1990s, even if it did not show up in the GDP numbers.  The total number of issues listed on the Nasdaq actually peaked all the way back in December 1996, more than 3 years ahead of the final price high for the Nasdaq Comp.
Nasdaq total issues chart
What was happening at the end of the 1990s is that the tax bite was so high that it put a real drag on the economy, stifling the innovation and business building efforts that had been in effect during the early 1990s.  Putting the brakes on the economy by having taxes up too high took too much money out of the real economy, and pushed the economy in the recession which was finally evident starting in early 2000. 
Turning back to the lead chart above, the inverse correlation between federal receipts and GDP growth was restored beginning in about 2001, and it remains in effect now.  So if someone proposes that the total federal receipts line should be bent upward by increasing the tax bite, then it is reasonable to conclude that the real GDP growth rate line would see itself bent downward in response.  In other words, the Congressional Budget Office was correct in its admonition that higher tax rates (from the expiration of the Bush era tax cuts) would push the U.S. economy into a recession once again.
For our roles as investors, we have to be ready for whatever Congress does.  The proof offered here that raising tax receipts would be a bad idea is not sufficient to keep Congress from going ahead with it.  Then again, having a Chickie Run in stolen cars is a bad idea, but having something be a bad idea is often not enough of an impediment to keep some people from proceeding with it. 
Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report

Tale of Two Nations


Back-to-back days of 1.5%+ gains pushed India's stock market to a new 52-week high today.  As shown in the first chart below, the chart pattern couldn't look any better for the India's Sensex.
At the same time, China, India's BRIC brother, made a new 52-week low today.  As shown below, the chart pattern can't get any worse for China's Shanghai Composite.
The chart below shows just how long China's stock market has been struggling.  Back in late 2008, both China and India made their financial crisis lows at the same time.  Both indices bounced 100%+ very quickly off of the lows, but the two countries have seen their stock markets take very different paths since late 2009.  India has hung in there and is currently up 125% off of its lows, while China is now up just 13.95% from its low made back in October 2008.  How much further will China fall before it finally sees some kind of sustained rally?

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Flying High

On American Airlines traveling to Vegas right now and corresponding through the miracle of wireless....

Bullish?


This is one of my favorite methods of analysis. I like to stay aware of the MACD levels relative to historical norms.
$SPX 20121128
The Green arrows represent bounces from this level that happened in the SEP/OCT/NOV time frame.
The black arrows mark bounces from this level at other times through a year.
The reality appears to be that when the MACD is pulled down this far by the investing community, there is usually enough ammunition for a big bounce. The S O N months, have 17%, 22% and 28% rallies from this level.
The other months produced rallies of 15%, 10%, 7%, 15%. 
The market has been quite resilient the last 3 days so someone is buying the intraday lows. . . .
Not sure yet that I do agree yet, but you have to stay flexible in this business, or you will lose your shirt.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

If Iceland Can...Why Not Us Then?


Adios Mofos!!!!!




Written by Robert Winett for the Telegraph, 27 Nov 2012

Almost two-thirds of the country’s million-pound earners disappeared from Britain after the introduction of the 50p top rate of tax, figures have disclosed.

In the 2009-10 tax year, more than 16,000 people declared an annual income of more than £1 million to HM Revenue and Customs.

This number fell to just 6,000 after Gordon Brown introduced the new 50p top rate of income tax shortly before the last general election.

The figures have been seized upon by the Conservatives to claim that increasing the highest rate of tax actually led to a loss in revenues for the Government.

It is believed that rich Britons moved abroad or took steps to avoid paying the new levy by reducing their taxable incomes. . . .

Last night, Harriet Baldwin, the Conservative MP who uncovered the latest figures, said: “Labour’s ideological tax hike led to a tax cull of millionaires.

Far from raising funds, it actually cost the UK £7 billion in lost tax revenue. . . .

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9707029/Two-thirds-of-millionaires-left-Britain-to-avoid-50p-tax-rate.html

Tragedy of A Welfare State



Exactly two years ago, some of the more politically biased progressive media outlets (who are quite adept at creating and taking down their own strawmen arguments, if not quite as adept at using an abacus, let alone a calculator) took offense at our article "In Entitlement America, The Head Of A Household Of Four Making Minimum Wage Has More Disposable Income Than A Family Making $60,000 A Year." In it we merely explained what has become the painful reality in America: for increasingly more it is now more lucrative - in the form of actual disposable income - to sit, do nothing, and collect various welfare entitlements, than to work. This is graphically, and very painfully confirmed, in the below chart from Gary Alexander, Secretary of Public Welfare, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (a state best known for its broke capital Harrisburg). As quantitied, and explained by Alexander, "the single mom is better off earnings gross income of $29,000 with $57,327 in net income & benefits than to earn gross income of $69,000 with net income and benefits of $57,045." . . .

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Because I Love My Followers

Sure To Make New Friends With Policy


Obama’s Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta, said during a speech last week at the Center for a New American Security that the drone and commando war waged by the United States will intensify and expand outside the declared combat zone over the next few years.
Panetta declared the “campaign against al Qaeda will largely take place outside declared combat zones, using a small-footprint approach that includes precision operations, partnered activities with foreign Special Operations Forces, and capacity building so that partner countries can be more effective in combating terrorism on their own.”
In addition to increasing the number of Predator and Reaper drones, Panetta said the Pentagon will add 8,000 commandos to its Special Operations Forces over the next five years.
The Pentagon boss said “to truly protect America, we must sustain and in some areas deepen our engagement in the world – our military, intelligence, diplomatic and development efforts are key to doing that.”
Targets include Boko Haram Islamic militants in Nigeria, Ansar Dine extremists in Mali, and al-Qaeda affiliates in Libya (the anti-Gaddafi rebels supported by the U.S. in Libya admittedthey were members of al-Qaeda). Panetta placed the blame for the murder of the U.S. ambassador in Benghazi squarely on al-Qaeda.
The U.S. is suspected of running clandestine Special Forces in other African nations, including Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Sudan. . . .

Monday, November 26, 2012

Interesting


A short gamma trading strategy involves being naked short options (often slightly-out-of-the-money short dated options) and collecting the premium

Short gamma traders can be profitable month after month after month and year after year after year – until they go broke. In this respect, a short gamma trader has the life cycle of a turkey.
Happy Thanksgiving

http://peterlbrandt.com/the-suprising-correlation-between-a-turkey-and-a-short-gamma-trader/

Serge Nailed It on GLD!!!!!!


GLD : Near term expectation

The Bull trap I was execting i GLD did what it was supposed to do.
This is an old chart with a Bull trap warning I made in late september :
GLDB
 
This is where it is now .. so expect more upside until $185

GLDA


http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2012/11/gld-near-term-expectation.html


How Banks Control The World Through Debt


Sunday, November 25, 2012

Might Be Best Explanation of Entitlement Ever...At least It Is For Me!!


Dollar Bounce?


The stock market is at a very critical pivot point which I feel will generate opportunities in December and for the first quarter of 2013.
Trading with the trend is not always an easy task. It is human nature to predict and jump to conclusions and usually it’s better to trade with the trend no matter what your emotions are telling you. The current trend is down and I stick with that until we are proven wrong.
If you carefully analyze the charts below you will understand where we are trading in the market and what the risks are at this point. The question is are in the middle of a trend reversal back up, or is this just a bounce within a down trend? Either way, any pullback this week should be aggressively managed to lock in gains and tighten stops because it could go either way and you do not want to be on the wrong side of the table.
The chart below shows the US dollar index 4 hour chart. It looks as though we should start to see a bounce this week and that should put pressure on stocks and commodities.
The SP500 (SPY etf) below that shows my analysis and key price levels. I took a short position on the SPY Friday afternoon as I feel a pullback is imminent. That being said, all I need is one big down day and I will be pulling money off the table to lock in gains and tighten my stop.
Dollar Index and SPY ETF Trading
My trading charts make reading the market simple, quick and precise so if you want this type of analysis and trade ideas delivered to your inbox every day including my Pre-Market video analysis then join my newsletter here: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Great Charts


I know most Apple enthusiasts will be rolling their eyes with my analysis and that’s fine because the rest of us need people to buy our shares as we unload long positions or sell Apple short.
All joking aside, the charts below clearly show some very interesting information you cannot afford to overlook. At minimum, take a quick glance at the charts which tell the full story on their own…

The Four Stages of AAPL & RIMM

Markets are cyclical in nature. There is a constant process of expansion and contraction, rally and decline that continues as the market determines the theoretical fair value of a security. The sum of these moves forms an unquestionable cyclical pattern consistent within all time frames.
During a cycle a stock enters different phases of support, from irrational exuberance typically found before its peak, to periods of widespread discontent where its price is continually punished. However there are never distinctly good or bad stocks.
Every “good” stock will eventually become a bad one and vice versa. There are however good trades; trades that reward an investor who has correctly anticipated a move and positioned himself accordingly.
It is important to note that this works with commodities like gold and silver which are trading at a VERY interesting point in their life cycle. Looking at various time frames in GLD and SLV you can see this.
Classic economic theory dissects the economic cycle into four distinct stages: expansion, trough, decline and recovery. A stock is no different, and proceeds through the following cycle:
  • Stage 1 – After a period of decline a stock consolidates at a contracted price range as buyers step into the market and fight for control over the exhausted sellers. Price action is neutral as sellers exit their positions and buyers begin to accumulate the stock.
  • Stage 2 – Upon gaining control of price movement, buyers overwhelm sellers and a stock enters a period of higher highs and higher lows. A bull market begins and the path of least resistance is higher. Traders should aggressively trade the long side, taking advantage of any pullback or dips in the stock’s price.
  • Stage 3 – After a prolonged increase in share price the buyers now become exhausted and the sellers again move in. This period of consolidation and distribution produces neutral price action and precedes a decline in the stock’s price.
  • Stage 4 – When the lows of Stage 3 are breached a stock enters a decline as sellers overwhelm buyers. A pattern of lower highs and lower lows emerges as a stock enters into a bear market. A well-positioned trader would be aggressively trading the short side and taking advantage of the often quick declines in the stock’s price. More times than not all of stage 2 gains are given back in a short period of time.
While these stages are historically defined over long time periods they actually exists in all time frames, allowing traders to take advantage of a cycle regardless of their trading time frame. Fortunately this phenomenon, known as a “fractal”, exists within all security markets. A fractal is simply a rough geometric shape that can be subdivided into smaller parts that have the same properties; a smaller version of the whole.
This is important to understand because through technical analysis as we are often analyzing multiple time frames. In the short term, the four stage model may repeat itself many times. The combination of these short term cycles form a medium term cycle, and the combination of multiple medium term cycles form a long term cycle.  Recognition of these cycles is paramount in trading success.

The Four Stages Profile: This signature profile happens over and over again in the market and all the great leaders eventually become laggards.

 Stock Market Cycle - Four Stages

REAL LIFE PROFILES:

AAPL - Apple Stock Trading Life Cycle
JDSU Stock Market Cycle Profile
CSCO Stock Market Cycle Profile
MSFT Stock Market Cycle Profile
POT Stock Market Cycle Profile
Qcom Stock Market Cycle Profile
Drys Stock Market Cycle Profile

Variety in Trading

Investment securities (stocks, ETF’s, options, futures) can be described as being similar to different types of athletes, each with their own unique style and personality. Some can be characterized as sprinters, participating in quick bouts of movement but tiring quickly. Others could said to be more similar to a marathoner, enduring prolonged courses in one direction without pause or interruption.
When I look to make a trade I look for sprinters as historically I have had the most success with them. Other investors like pension and mutual funds are more interested in the long term marathoner that provides steady performance. There is no one way to trade; each method can be equally profitable or unprofitable. It ultimately comes down to what style works best for you, and the only way that can be determined is through trial and error.

Different phases, different strategies

As noted above, the market alternates between periods of trending activity and periods of consolidation. In a trend (stages 2 and 4) there will be an expansion of the price range in one direction. An uptrend will have a series of higher highs and higher lows (stage 2), while a down trend will produce lower highs and lower lows (stage 4). In a consolidation there will be a contraction of price range prior to a reversal in trend. This neutral stage is avoided by trend traders.
A stock in stage 1 or 3 is typically correcting itself after having experience a prolonged move in one direction. These corrections are found after periods of extreme movements that often conclude with emotional and undisciplined trading at peaks and troughs. Trading these two stages is quite different than 2 and 4, and this book will teach you how to manage your risk and trade these stages responsibly.
A short term consolidation within a primary trend is one area where we want to study the price action of a security for clues as to whether there will be a resumption in the trend, continued consolidation, or reversal. Sometimes however it is difficult to identify any order or consistency on any given time frame.
If you are a trend trader these periods should be avoided. Trading has enough inherent challenges already and at all times a successful trader will only be searching out those trades that have a high probability of being profitable.
Trading is all about finding an edge or an advantage and exploiting it for maximum profit. If there is no such edge than there is no reason to be involved. I will say this now and again many other times: Sometimes the best trade is no trade!
Naturally, regardless of the stage a stock is in or your conviction of its direction, risk of financial loss is always inherent in trading and this is critical to always keep in mind. The most successful traders are not immune to this and they too will have unprofitable trades. The key is to minimize those loses by only trading those stocks that have the highest probability of being profitable. This is what separates the profitable and professional traders from those that lose money.

Emotions and Lifecycle Analysis

History has an uncanny ability to repeat itself. Whether it’s the rise and fall of an empire or the rise and fall of a stock, there are clear cycles that are prevalent throughout history.
People may change, but human nature, and our ability to act, react and overreact is simply an innate part of our being. This predictability is what forms the basis of technical analysis and provides a trader with an edge with which to trade upon.  When we are analyzing cycles we really are analyzing emotions, trying to gain insight as to how market participants are behaving.
Upon conducting such analysis it can at times seem that markets are be behaving “irrationally” and out of order. Undisciplined traders often fall victim to their emotions and lose control of their objectivity. As people behave irrationally, so too does the market, and unfortunately these conditions can persist for long period of times.
John Maynard Keynes is often quoted for suggesting that “The markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” This is a harsh reality and puts great emphasis on the importance of discipline, risk management, and a keen eye for price action.
Emotions are what separate the successful traders from those that lose money.  They can be regarded as a relentless opponent, often showing up without warnings and striking you at inopportune times. The successful trader is able to recognize their presence and maintain objectivity, constantly assessing their own strengths and weaknesses.
There will ultimately be times where you can’t control your emotions; however you can always control how you respond to them. Any time you recognize that your emotions are influencing your outlook you are already one step ahead of the average market participant. It is at this point that you step back, refocus your perceptions, examine the price action, and then take the appropriate action.
An understanding of herd or mob mentality is important in trading and can provide you with an edge over the average participant who doesn’t contemplate what is happening around them. In a mob or riot, we never know what the feelings and motivations are of all the individual participants.
There are however certain emotions that seem to appear at distinct times and a certain predictability in their development. A stock’s price action is no different.  While we never know the underlying feeling and motivations of all participants, there are distinct emotions that are shared by the herd at various stages of a stock’s life. An understanding of these emotions and their implications on the price action of a stock is an advantage that the profitable trader maintains.
The Stock Market Lifecycle could be explained in much more detail, but this report gives you the foundation of stock / index trading cycles. I will be covering this topic in a future video with much more detail.

The Apple Money Tree Is Losing Its Leaves…

AAPL - Apple Share Price Cycle

The Fruit War – Apples Top While Berries Bottom

It is very interesting that AAPL shares topped the same week rim shares bottomed. Could the BB10 be the turnaround for Research in Motion? Either way the market is somewhat predictable as traders and investors buy the rumor that BB10 will be good, and they sell the news once it arrives no matter the outcome good or bad. Jan 30th is when it’s unveiled so we could see RIM shares continue to claw its way out of the grave.
AAPL vs RIMM - Apple's Top Blackberry Bottoms

RIM – Daily Chart Look of Price Pattern

Rimm - Research In Motion Stock Price Stage1 

Conclusion:

Knowing this information is crucial to survival as this cycle happens on all time frames (1 minute chart all the way up to yearly charts). Harnessing this information for trade selection and timing greatly reduces the amount of trades you take, while focusing only on new leaders which have massive upside potential. You can see some of my trade ideas which are in Stage 1 Accumulation mode getting ready for takeoff here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1992897
Judging from the recent price action in the broad market (SP500, NASDAQ, DOW, IWM) along with AAPL shares which have a large impact on index price direction. I feel the market is setting up for a strong Santa Clause rally in the coming week.
2013 looks like it will be a VERY exciting year for trading and investing as several sectors, stocks, and foreign country indexes are in Stage 1 Basing patterns about to start a new bull market. These major plays will become part of my trading alert service at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com from this point forward.
Chris Vermeulen

Saturday, November 24, 2012

Where's The Beef?


Gold Train Leaving Station


On the weekly chart below, we can see that, after making a new, all-time high back in August of 2011, gold went into a correction/consolidation mode, ultimately forming a descending triangle. While this formation suggests lower prices (the flat line is the weakest), price broke up through the top of the triangle. After a breakout the technical expectation is for price to pull back toward the line, which it did enthusiastically.
After testing that support, price has reversed upward, and this week made a strong move upward, signalling that the rally that began this summer is probably resuming. The weekly PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) turned up again, which is a very positive sign.
Screen shot 2012-11-23 at 11.16.12 AM
Conclusion: Gold has completed its post-breakout pullback and appears to be resuming its long-term advance, but this will not be "official" until the October top is exceeded. It needs to overcome resistance in the area of 1800, and finally the resistance at the all-time high around 1900.

Friday, November 23, 2012

100 Things To Know About Women



100 things to know about women

100. Girls enjoy always having something kind of wrong, like a headache or cramping or something. Remember: No matter how bad it sounds, she’s going to outlive you.
99. Most women will not have sex for the first time with a guy unless their legs are shaved. If your date shows up and you spot stubble, she’s trying to keep herself in line.
98. No matter how much she reassures you, if you can’t get a hard-on she assumes you’re not attracted to her.
97. Beware of your girlfriend's single party friend or gay bud. They want her to be single with them and will encourage any bad behavior as often as possible.
96. Jewelry. Now you always know what to get her for a last-minute gift.
95. The sight of you in your socks and underwear is the biggest turnoff in the world.
94. Never trust a girl who has no girlfriends. She doesn’t get along with other women because she’s either bat-shit crazy or just plain mean.
93. Girls who say, “I love sports!” are lying. Girls who ask you what time the game is on, without specifying which game they’re talking about, are not.
92. A random hookup is more likely to result in pregnancy, because a woman has more sex when she’s most fertile.
91. She still has all the love letters and cards from her past boyfriends.
90. Just started dating? Women want you to drive, even if it’s their car.
89. A girl would prefer to get a $100 gift from Tiffany & Co. than a $500 gift from K-Mart. Why? Because her friends will ask where she got it.
88. “If I give you my number on Friday, Tuesday and Wednesday are your best bets to score a date. Monday is too desperate, Thursday is too late.”—Ginger, 27
87. Your female coworkers are obsessed with the fact that on average they receive less pay than male counterparts—and the fact that they work less overtime and get pregnant is irrelevant to the discussion.
86. Laying a towel down over the wet spot is like putting your jacket over a mud puddle for her, you noble bastard.
85. A recent study revealed that natural blondes could be extinct in 200 years, so unless she’s Norwegian, her “Gwen” might be bottled.
84. Sixteen percent of American men have been with a prostitute—scientific proof most women are decent in bed.
83. Women always want to believe what you’re saying is true.
82. What do women really want in bed? More blankets. They get colder than men.
81. The threesome is not about you; it’s about the two girls. If you’re lucky enough to score one with your girlfriend, enjoy sex with the other one because there’s a good chance it’ll end the relationship.
80. If women have an excuse to take a pill, they’ll take it.
79. Never trust the woman who gives you the best blow job you’ve ever had.
78. “I hate when my boyfriend is sweaty and tries to lie down on top of me or cuddle after I’ve come. Wait five minutes.”—Alicia S, 21
77. The average woman kisses 79 men before getting married.
76. She hates your Xbox more than she lets on. Blow her off for some gaming and she’ll soon stop wasting time on a dork like you.
75. Women who are obsessed with their dogs also like to keep their men on a short leash.
74. “Girls who buy their men lap dances and pretend to enjoy it are kidding themselves. They’re trying to keep him happy with some controlled freedom.”—Amanda, 31
73. Over the course of her life, a woman will use 10 men for every one she loves. If you lent her your car or helped her move and didn't get laid, you're one of the 10.
72. During emergencies, women are likely to remain calmer than men. Though it should be noted that inventing minor crises on a weekly basis gives them more practice.
71. “Women grow hairs in a lot of the same places that men do—lower abdomen, nipples—we just get rid of them.”—Katie, 26
70. Unless they’re lesbians, she won’t approve of your hanging out with other girls. Even if they’re ugly. And, really, even if they’re lesbians.
69. If you have something to hide, she’ll find it.
68. Eighty-five: The number of males per 100 females in Gary, Indiana, lowest male-to-female ratio of any city with a population of 100,000-plus. The highest male-to-female ratio is in Salinas, California: 114 males for every 100 females.
67. Kiss her before two dates have gone by or you’ll be “friended.”
66. They can't live without tension. Every once in a while she's gonna pick a fight with you for no reason. Accept this as a running, inevitable theme and your relationship will make a lot more sense.
65. The most painless way to end an argument: Let her win.
64. An online dating service’s survey found that a woman’s ideal man is between 5’10 and 6’2.
63. In the U.S., 21 percent of women ages 18 to 59 hold out for their honeymoon.
62. A British study claims a woman’s chances of getting married drop by 40 percent for every 16-point rise in her IQ. The same increase in IQ for a man boosted his chances of getting married by 35 percent.
61. When a woman tells you her problems, she does not want you to offer solutions.
60. Women often cite manhandling of breasts as the biggest foreplay faux pas.
59. “When I’m drunk, I can’t come. Not even with a vibrator.”—Lauren, 35
58. If they're going to do it, most wives cheat between the ages of 18 and 29.
57. Most women think they’re better drivers than they are. Don’t point this out while she’s at the wheel or she’ll freak and crash.
56. Women ingest about half the lipstick they apply, which means they eat approximately one to three sticks per year.
54. A woman might say she just wants sex, but sleep with her for a while and she’ll change her tune. “I’ve known so many women who think they can pull this off, but they always develop feelings for the guy,” - Erin 25.
53. According to the American Association of Facial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Angelina Jolie’s lips were the most requested celebrity feature among all female patients in 2004.
52. Despite always complimenting another woman’s short haircut, she secretly celebrates having one less competitor, since men prefer long hair.
51. Don’t call her “cute.” In her mind it’s the same as “not vomit-inducing.” “Sexy,” OK. “Hot,” yes. “Fucking fine,” only if she’s at least slightly buzzed.
50. Women often buy shoes a size or two small because they’re in denial about the size of their feet—which they can’t stand.
49. They dream of one day peeing in a urinal.
48. Women know where they stand looks-wise but worry about being considered cool, about which they’re unsure.
47. According to the U.S. Bureau of Statistics, 23 percent of 18- to 34-year-old women live with their parents, versus 31 percent of you losers.
46. Women want to talk dirty, but they’re afraid you won’t respect them in the morning. Reassure her that letting go in bed doesn’t make her less classy and she’ll probably go wild. Gin and or Vodka helps.
45. Twenty-three percent of men’s magazine readers are women.
44. A psycho jealous girl will do anything to keep her man—including anal, which some men are into, but I think is border line homosexual.
41. If she suddenly cuts her hair short, it might mean she no longer cares what you think of her. But that doesn’t mean she doesn’t care about someone else’s opinion.
40. About half of all brides will lose a good friend over a ridiculous bridesmaid squabble.
39. It never hurts to say you're sorry, even if you don't mean it.
38. Let her beat you at something once in a while—poker, chess, Ping-Pong—and she’ll be more likely to give you what you want, like some peace and quiet.
37. Women’s public bathrooms are about three times more disgusting than men’s.
36. “At one point or another, I’ve gone through your things looking for any evidence from past relationships. I’m talking photographs, postcards, mementos, address books, diaries. If you don’t like it, get rid of this stuff before letting me in your apartment. It’s not about trust; it’s about curiosity, and it drives us crazy till it’s been satiated.”—Camille, 28
35. Like you, girls hate nothing more than a clingy partner who needs them every eight seconds.
34. Chick songs strike a deeply primal chord inside women while simultaneously revolting men. Just sit back and let her sing the Sarah McLachlan or Alicia Keys song. It’s only about four minutes long.
33. The average woman owns eight bras and wears each one five times before washing. Nasty!
32. Girls will not sit on any toilet outside their own home or a five-star hotel. Everywhere else they’re hovering above the toilet in a squat.
31. Got a new girl coming over? Your (tidy) bathroom should include clean linen, a box of Puffs Plus, and several full rolls of TP.
30. “Don’t caress our faces while we’re kissing, unless you really, really, really like us.”—Rachel, 26
29. On a first date, women never order what they really want to eat.
28. Breast augmentation surgery has grown by 257 percent since 1997. The most popular size? C-cup. As if you didn’t know.
27. Gain her trust when you’re out by calling her at 10 P.M. She’ll go to bed content you’re thinking of her, even if you’re slurping Jell-O shots off some strippers’ cleavage.
26. Put down the Drakkar and grab a box of Good & Plenty. Women are turned on by the scent of black licorice.
25. At least one of her friends wants to sleep with you.
24. A good but flawed man is a fixer-upper gem, and women love nothing more than home improvements.
23. Every woman is self-conscious about her ass. Tell her you love her ass and you’ll see it more often.
22. If you want more sex, tell your girl an attractive woman hit on you that day. Sixty percent of the time, it works every time.
21. More than half of surveyed females between 18 and 25 would prefer to be run over by a truck than be fat.
20. All women think they’re smarter than their partners in some significant way.
19. The more piercing she has, the more places she’ll let you put it.
18. Once in a while, let her pick the movie and don't complain about it.
17. Any good woman will tell ya, honesty is not always the best policy.
16. Chicks aren’t afraid to get kinky; you just have to have the nerve to ask.
15. Girls don’t want to date doormats. So make her proud and refuse to give up bowling night with the guys.
14. Don't take a woman to a concert you really want to see—she'll just want to leave early.
13. “Women appreciate a big penis, but having one doesn’t give you an excuse to suck at foreplay.”—Amanda, 28
12. Studies show women are more attracted to “macho” guys near ovulation. The rest of the month, they’re drawn to “good providers,” otherwise known as chumps.
11. She likes one of your friends.
10. Ugly girls like to hang out with pretty girls because it makes them feel like they're more attractive. Pretty girls hang out with ugly girls for the same reason.
9. The minute she decides she’s even mildly interested in you, she starts making mental pictures of what your kids would look like and imagining her first name with your last.
8. Sixty percent of women in the United States color their hair, according to L’Oreal (who are obviously hoping they can peer-pressure the other 40 percent).
7. Dated a stripper? Keep your mouth shut, stupid.
6. Rub a sheet of medium-grade sandpaper across your face. That’s your five o’clock shadow when you kiss her. Now rub that sandpaper on your inner thigh. (Mind you, we’re not suggesting you shave.)
5. Female serial killers tend to use poison rather than guns or knives.
4. Foghat’s “Slow Ride” is not about a trip in the car. Get the hint?
3. The one breakup line she’ll never be able to argue you out of: “I’m sorry, but I no longer have feelings for you.”
2. Buying a present for your girl? She’ll hate it (and you) if she finds out you took along another woman to help pick it out.
1. You'll probably never know how many guys she's slept with. Five really means somewhere between 12 and 35

Jap Attack?


The Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) is getting a boost from weakness in the yen. Notice that the index broke resistance as the Yen Index ($XJY) broke support. The Nikkei benefits because a weaker Yen makes Japanese exports more competitive and this helps the overall economy.
121119nikk
Click this image for a live chart.
The weekly chart of EWJ, the Japan iShares ETF, looks much less promising, so far, in my opinion.  A weekly close above 9.40 will be required to confirm a new uptrend.  On the other hand, downside risk looks quite serious.  Continuation of the existing downtrend would complete a giant head and shoulders top formation and presage a further fall of 50%.


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