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Monday, October 10, 2011


“One of the US indicators that has held up quite well and maintained some sense of hope that recession can still be avoided is the ISM which has stayed above the critical 50 level. But further pronounced weakness seems baked in the cake and will disabuse the optimists. The excess of inventories over new orders suggests a very sharp slowdown (see left-hand chart below), and the inventory de-stocking cycle is set toremove one source of component strength from the overall ISM indicator (see right-hand chart below).”

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