Special Situation Report – Sugar
Cavaet: As a trader I deal with possibilities, not probabilities and definitely not certainties.
I present herein a technical narrative. Is it likely to occur? Probably not, but we’ll see.
The Sugar futures market has a boom-to-bust history. Big bull moves followed by equally big beartrends. My read on Sugar is that a bull market is a high possibility (not high probability) for 2013. I present my evidence as follows, working from larger time frames down to shorter time frames.
There is an analog for the current longest-term chart structure in Sugar – it is the Silver market. Notice the similarities between the quarterly graphs of the two markets:
A. Multi-decade base
B. Initial thrust completion
C. Hard retest of the base
D. Second thrust from the base
E. Secondary retest of the base
F. Major bull trend
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