The last time the market sold off in late September, bonds rallied right into resistance and were turned back. That led to a modest 5-6 day rally in the indexes. As you can see from the chart below, a very similar position in the widely followed chart of the TLT ETF has presented itself. The next day or two should be telling – we have this key ETF at major resistance; a puncture over and above would be bearish for the market as a whole. A rejection would be net bullish.
Meanwhile the action in the equity markets has degraded substantially from even late September. Maybe the hero worship of the cult of Jamie Dimon tomorrow morning provides a better result than today's action. Thus far it has been an uninspired oversold bounce with very random action and a lot of stocks outside of the "resource" names giving back much or all of their morning gains.
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