The $OEXA200R (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com that can be used to forecast conservative entry and exit points for the stock market .
The OEXA is used to find the "sweet spot" time period in the market when you have the best chance of making money . See Is This the Best Stock Market Indicator Ever? for a discussion of this technical tool.
The charts below are current through Friday's close.
Daily OEXA200R past 12 months
Monthly OEXA200R since April 2007
Interpretation:
The OEXA200R ended the week down 6 points at 53%, having previously dropped to the crucial 65% "Sell it all!" line on May 15.
Of the three secondary indicators:
- MACD has flipped from positive to NEGATIVE (red line above black).
- Slow STO has flipped from positive to NEGATIVE (red line above black).
- RSI is below 50 and is NEGATIVE.
Commentary
Well, I hope you "went away in May" (May 15 to be precise, you were warned) because June has started off with a bang. The unemployment numbers are a disaster and we still have the end of Operation Twist and the Grexit to look forward to. The next stop is when OEXA200R hits 50% and the bottom really falls out. This might be one long, hot summer.
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