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2011 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation
Released on 11/4/2011 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2011 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 103,000  90,000  64,000  to 152,000  Unemployment Rate - Level 9.1 % 9.1 % 9.0 % to 9.2 % Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.2 % Av Workweek - All Employees 34.3 hrs 34.3 hrs 34.3 hrs to 34.3 hrs Private Payrolls - M/M change 137,000  120,000  100,000  to 168,000
Market Consensus Before Announcement Nonfarm payroll employment in September advanced 103,000, following a 57,000 rise in August and a 127,000 increase in July. Private nonfarm payrolls were somewhat stronger than the total, gaining 137,000 in September, following a 42,000 increase in August and a 173,000 boost in July. A return of striking telecommunications workers added about 45,000 to the payroll total and private tally. Still, prior months' revisions were substantial at a net gain of 99,000 and more than offset the returning strikers effect. Wages rebounded 0.2 percent in September after dipping 0.2 percent the prior month. The average workweek for all workers in September ticked up to 34.3 hours from 34.2 hours in August. From the household survey, the unemployment rate held steady at 9.1 percent.
Definition The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. Based on the Household Survey, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Other key series come from the Establishment Survey (of business establishments). Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls.  Why Investors Care
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month. Data Source: Haver Analytics
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy. Data Source: Haver Analytics

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