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Thursday, August 15, 2013

Presidential Cycle Forecasts Bad News For Bulls

The four year presidential cycle is something that we take very seriously. Readers of the blog know we discuss it every so often just to get an idea of where we are. This time, the timing of the post is a bit more strategic. You see, of the entire 4 year cycle, we are about to enter what is by far the worst period. If history is any indication of what’s to come, the next 13 months should look nothing like the last 13. 

Here is a composite S&P500 chart of the last 21 Presidential Cycles taking us back to 1928. Coming into the month, seasonality clearly points to a near term top, one that could potentially last until a bottom next Fall:

8-15-13 presidential cycle

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