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Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Recent Jim Sinclair Meeting Roundup

Courtesy SD reader StackerX:
I arrived at the Sutton Room in the Hilton Hotel at about 1:30pm. I figured it would be better to be 30 minutes early than a minute late and too my surprise the room was practically full. Once I entered the room I was also surprised Mr Sinclair had already started answering questions. Their were roughly 800 people at this meeting and hundreds of questions answered. I would say a quarter of the questions revolved around silver. Anyway the Q&A ran till about 5:30pm. Here are some of the notes I was able to capture while there:
1) Cyprus was a major mistake by the IMF. This was meant to shift the onus from debt monetization to the depositors. This means you should move your money out of the banking system and into something else like gold. He also said if Cypus was successful it would have caused the Dow to plummet down to as low as 1000 points because it would be a shift away from QE. QE would be second.
2) IRA timing question. Sinclair: “you have 2-3 years.” Says stop contributing. Get out. Doesn’t have to be right away. You have 2-3 years.
3) FDIC can’t meet its obligations. It could handle one or two bank failures but it cant handle a systemic crisis.
4) Mining production good to start now. 5 years ago maybe not so good.
5) Gold valuation math question: Dividing current fiat by amount of gold held = $15-17,000 gold? Sinclair: too soon to tell. Do this in 2015. This calculation may misguide you now.
6) Gold Confiscation possible? Sinclair: short answer “No” because gold has a different role today then it did back in the 1930′s. Back then they confiscated gold to increase the money supply. “Gold doesn’t function like that anymore”. Sinclair doesn’t believe their will be confiscation. Can’t comment on Taxing it instead.
7) Gold coins less likely counterfeit than Gold Bars.
8) Gold only asset to appreciate.
9) Gold will find its way back into the monetary system
10) Gold price to look for: $1517 and $2021.
11) Sinclair on Silver: Silver will rise past $50. It will rise as gold goes higher. Silver is not a monetary metal. The price of silver is based on the paper markets, because of this the supply is infinite. “The high Silver price wont be fulfilled”. “He cant agree on a really high Silver price”.
12) Why doesnt someone/ Billionaire try to corner the Silver market? Sinclair: because they will end up like the Hunt brothers.
Brings up a Jesse Livermore example where he was once pressured to take delivery. He said Livermore was a gentlemen and refused. Said other billionaires probably don’t want to go down in history as the person who crashed the Comex.
If the Hunts took delivery they may have ended up behind bars. When you break an exchange it creates a false price upwards. Problem with a Comex crash is it will go up but then crash down. He said it would be “orgasmic” lol. It is better to have a steady rise up!
13) Gold storage companies may become unethical like any other company.
14) Question about Gold Silver ratio. Sinclair: “He doesnt believe in ratios”
15) Sinclair is more of a believer of gold.
16) What about Silver? ” Silver will also do well”
17) Gold will be revalued by the market
18) Their has never been a nationalized mine that made a profit.
19) Remonetization of Silver is unlikely.
20) Yes physical Gold and Silver can run out.
21) Triple digit Silver a myth? Sinclair: Not a myth. But wont hold. $500 Silver probably wont happen.
22) Dow high because of liquidity. (floats all boats)
23) Dow could have a reaction lower sometime soon but then go higher.
24) Significant Gold targets: $248, $1650,
25) Gold was a utility in the 50′s
26) Miners are a great opportunity because they are smashed. Even with a market crash they cant go much lower.
27) QE pullback? Stopping QE creates a black hole. No limit to QE
28) The Fed only has two tools: Debt monetization and Gold revaluation.
29) Gold bull run cycle to end by year 2020-2021
30) Glass Steagall wont come back.
31) He believes Hyperinflation can occur. He believes if we have Hyperinflation it will only last 3 months. “It will be a very ugly experience”. Also said it would be short and violent.
32) Euro will outperform Dollar because they are practicing Austerity.
33) Said their is no solution to over the counter derivatives. He said a derivative is like a knot in a string that loops. He said the collapse of Lehman caused the loop to be cut.
34) 5 year window for BRICS to take over
35) He said next target for Gold was $3,100-3,200. Below $3500 is a buy. By 2015-17 Gold will be roughly $4000-4500.
36) He said if you are a Miner stock holder you must act crazy and raise hell to see profits.
37) He said the significance of March 27th date was it was his birthday. lol
38) Attack on Iran is unlikely. In the past it was possible but it doesnt look attractive today. Russian stealth Submarines may be game changer.
39) If Gold revaluation were to occur within a year it would be roughly $4,499. But could go higher after a year.
40) He was asked if he has a leg up in the industry. He said of course. Being in this business for as long as he has means he trades information with heads of industry.
41) He doesnt believe Comex will fail.
42) Question about Bitcoin? Sinclair:” it may not be practical”

*Recap from Green Lantern:
The room was packed. I came in at 1:30 thinking it would start at 2:00pm. He must have started at 1pm and took questions non-stop for at least 4 hrs. I left at 5pm. He entertained any question by anyone with great patience and kindness.

More people in that room than attended the Hard Assets conference last year to hear Eric Sprott and Rick Rule speak.

In the spirit of JIm Sinclair, I hope this is helpful.

How does the Cyprus, IMF, Russia situation effect the price of gold.

The situation represents a major shift of paradigm from bail out to bail in’s. From QE to keep banks afloat to stealing people’s money as the new form of QE  .short falls of the bank. Shifting the burden of QE to the depositors. Russians set up banks in Cyprus and Europe for themselves.

IMF is no competition for Russia. If IMF insists on confiscation, they will create velocity out of fiat into gold. It will backfire on IMF as people get out of the banking system and putting it into gold. The same tax is being implemented in Spain and New Zealand. On Cyprus “they were informed that this was going to happen”

There is a silent movement in the United States. All the people in this room represent a grass roots movement. You can trigger events by doing the wrong thingIt’s getting to he point that the average guy knows he has been had. If government wants to take the other guys money, realize that we are a feisty bunch. So politically government has to walk the razor’s edge or start civil unrest. It would very very dangerous to pull a Cyprus in the United States.

the Euro took a big hit with Cyprus. it will come back and out survive the US Dollar. They are on austerity. We should be approaching the end game but refuse to face it.

Should I get out of my IRA’s? Yes. Take the tax loss and protect your money Banks, brokerage houses etc… While FDIC insures banks it doesn’t insure all the systemic risk as clearinghouses will go broke.
Sinclair kept throwing out dates like 2015, 2016 as the line in the sand to get out. People were concerned about time loosing the 50% matching money. He said you have two years to think about it.
Will Confiscation of gold take place? Confiscation occurred because gold was the QE of time. FDR had to increase the money supply. Confiscation didn’t bring in alot of gold but it did control price. More likely a wind-fall tax based on punishment more probable than confiscation. The confiscation meme exists as fear. A tool to keep you away. No better tool than gold to deal with solvency.

Gold will find it’s way back into the system as paper markets have less influence than physical market.
What do you think of silver? The high expectations of silver will not be fulfilled. Silver is not monetary like gold. $500 silver improbable. 3 digits yes as it will follow gold. Gold silver ratio is meaningless.
Ratio is 20/20 hindsight. I don’t believe in ratio’s It changes all the time. (he elaborated but don’t have the notes). I believe in gold more than silver however I do not want to pee on anybodies parade. Silver will do well. Gold has more monetary implications. Silver does not.

Should we hold some gold in storage houses in foreign countries? By 2017 we will experience tight capital controls. As the gold market continues one will have to look out for unscrupulous business from coin sellers to storage facilities. Storage facilities creates temptation.Have gold on your person


What do you think of Bitcoin? Intriguing but not practical Bitcoin not better than Krugerrand.

Is Sprott silver PSLV as safe as holding silver? Sprott is a top man. He will not steal your silver in any form. I invest in Sprott.

Why doesn’t Eric Sprott just place bets on the COMEX and take it out? Now he has to wait three months for delivery why doesn’t he just do it on the COMEX if he is really interested in silver realizing it’s full potential and helping everybody out? Because he is a gentleman same as Jesse Livermore. It’s not the right thing to do. Eric Sprott knows in his heart that fundamentals of silver will see light of day. Same outcome. Plus if he did it, they might put him behind bars.

Will gold mines suffer from nationalization/confiscation? Yes, possible. Mines never do well when governments take over.

Is the entire financial system a ponzi system? (Much longer question and much longer answer) but YES. Especially now. No ethical behavior. It is as bad as Sodom and Gomorrah except S&G was alot more fun. All societies reach this point.

How Close to a tipping point are we and at what phase in the gold market are we in compared to the 70′s? We are past the tipping point. We’ve entered wonderland. In the 70′s, we pulled back from the edge, now we have papered up all the problems. We drove into a big hole in the road and then threw a big rock in it. We can’t compare the three phases of the bullmarket, steal etc…, because now the dynamic is different. We should have peaked. If all of you come out the other end with what you have now, you’ll be fortunate.
My children were thinking of opening up a food business but with what’s going is it just an effort in futility? No. Food business, farming etc.. Good business’s. Don’t let the jerks stop you from living your life.
Other professions were mentioned through out the meeting. Education to the youth is of paramount importance. You are not looking to give your kids your called. You are looking to educate them and use it to help them start out on their own.

The usual things that people think will create value for gold will not effect it as much as the paper market dying, velocity of money being created by financial repression, bail outs to bail in. As the bleeding takes place, they become stupid, make mistakes and it will create velocity out of paper. When they get fat and happy, they get lazy. they are evil men whose appetites can not be satisfied. They always want more. Gold will only reach it’s potential when the paper market dies.

The markets are bigger than the banks. Russia, China, BRICS will bring down western elite. Don’t mess with the Russians.

On Martin Armstrong calling Sinclair a fool. “I do not mind being called a fool by a smart person” Martin is trying to become famous in mainstream financial system. His system of using cycles in the manner he doesn’t work.
Alf Fields, I like him. He doesn’t call me a fool. hardworking, good work. Doesn’t mean always right.
End Game: BRIC countries take over the world in five years. Massive economic swapping of economic and military power from US to China. It’s happening now. Settling transactions in Yuan in other currencies.

See Sinclairs story on his blog about two Chinese submarines appearing out of nowhere near the American flag. The Hunt For Red October is real and represents the paradigm shift of Chinese economic and eventual military superiority. Chinese subs could show up in NY Harbor undetected. We need to learn this technology. Our superior war machine is fading and China will soon take the lead. The end of US supremacy.
Attacking Iran off the table. Two years ago. Likely. Now if they mess with Iran, they mess with china and russia. If I go dead silent and you don’t hear from me, it means something is happening that I don’t like.

What is the best surrogate for gold? I like to answer all questions and because you asked it I would have to say CEF. Central Fund of Canada. I’d prefer to hold my own gold.

Will China become the worlds reserve currency? Not officially. People will choose it. They do not want the burdens that come with that status. Countries transmitting their problems. to them. Gold will back an official world currency

I don’t have much of life. I don’t sleep that much. I do not need that much sleep. I play with my dogs. I live my life for all of you! (applause) I am here for you. I will keep you informed through my blog. I will eventually tell you all my secrets. You will know it too. (told one guy part of his system of accurate prediction of gold came from Jesse Livermores 1923 Wall Street Journal articles)

I have answered well over 200,000 emails. Feel free to email me. Sometimes I miss some but my life is now dedicated to giving service to others. This meeting represents a huge grass root movement.

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