. . . While the recent employment report will most assuredly give the current Administration plenty to boast about the underlying trends are far more disturbing. The ongoing structural realities, the fact that many of the jobs that have been destroyed will never return, combined with the demographic shift make the headline number much less important compared with the emerging trends. Take a look at a recent Gallup Organization poll which polls weekly, rather than one week out of a month with BLS, in regards to the emerging trends of employment. The most recent poll update shows the trend of the percentage of unemployed rising. As you can see the Gallup survey tends to lead movements in the BLS poll by about 4 weeks or so. Therefore, it is highly likely that in the coming month as the massive seasonal adjustments in January and February fade out we will see the unemployment rate rise back towards 8.5%. . . .
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