" . . . In this week's chart, I compare the 2-year Treasury Note yield to the Fed Funds target rate. One could use other short term rates for this comparison, but I have found that the 2-year yield seems to do the best job of indicating what the Fed should do. And the 2-year yield does a great job of indicating ahead of time what the Fed is going to do. If the Fed would just set the Fed Funds target close to the 2-year yield, we would see a lot more stability in the financial markets. . . . "
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/2-year_t-note_should_guide_the_fed/
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