Total Pageviews

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Doc Barter Market Musings Volume II

Major Top in Markets?
(just kidding)

In my article dated 23 January 2011, I pointed out that Dow Jones & SP500 have no sell signal . Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 however showed some weakness in Advance/Decline, Up/Down Volume and Summation Index.

Some emerging markets have lost a very good percentage from their October & November highs and others hold up well parallel to US market.

Australia ASX   -> acts parallel to US market , Jan 11 new high.
Philippine PSE  -> 4397 - 3960 =>  437 points drop
Singapore STI  -> 3313 – 3187 =>  126 points drop
Thailand SET  ->  1050 –  966 =>     84 points drop
Taiwan             -> acts parallel to US market, Jan 11 new high
Korea Kospi     -> acts parallel to Nasdaq and made a new high in Jan 11
Malaysia           -> high in Jan 11 but losing ground lately
Indonesia JSE   -> 3790- 3400 =>   390 points drop
China SSEC    ->  3300 - 2806 = > 494 points drop
Chine SE         ->    888 -   814 =>    74 points drop
India BSE            ->21100 -19120=> 980 points drop
Sri Lanka ASH -> amazing rise in 2010. Index gained over 100%

And now I come to my favored market Mongolia MSE 20. The very market some users at SOH were very amused about.
This index gained from Jan 2010 at 6240 another 12,629 points and is trading today +4,6%. When I mentioned it in Nov 10 on SOH, MSE20 was trading ca 13,000 and has gained in 2 month another 5000 points.
MSE 20 is up  ca 200% since Jan 2010. Wondering who is smiling. I guess it is always good to check which index benefits from Commodity Boom the most.

As I was bullish for Mongolia back in 2010, I am very bullish for Vietnam market for 2011. Wondering if this is a market some might find it amusing too J

Staying informed is the most important part as an investor. Lets do not forget, it is our hard earned money we invest. Why throw it away by being uninformed.
Having viewed the mixed picture of Emerging Market and the fact smaller emerging markets are actually declining, it means risk capital is withdrawn. Usually this is the very first sign of funds reducing exposure.
The next step is reducing exposure in developed markets.

Market Vane just reported a consensus of 65% bulls week ending 21 January 2011. A level not seen since October 2007. Bearing in mind that we have seen levels over 50% of bulls in sentiment readings over past few month in a row, a cautious approach is warranted.

Would I add positions to my portfolio at this levels? The answer is no !
I would rather check the portfolio and look out for weakening stocks and take profits. Market tops are usually taking up time of distribution and we shall monitor the down volume on down days and down volume on rally days.

Gold
Buying opportunity between 1300-1265 USD

PM Stocks
We should see a little bit more downside, but with Gold 30-70 USD away from a potential bottom, the downside here is limited. Suggest to pick your favored PM stocks and monitor any positive volume.

Summary:
Gold - > still has a valid sell signal
Silver -> still has a valid sell signal
HUI  -> still has a valid sell signal

USD/EUR -> $ may bounce from here as it is short term oversold.

Stocks still outperforming bonds

Bonds still on a valid sell signal -> may bounce a bit soon

VIX turned down big yesterday and needs to rise soon.

Natural Gas has a valid intermediate buy signal

Dow & SP500 have no sell signal yet !

Remarks:
I do apologize in advance for my rather humbled English language & grammar skills as it is not my mother tongue.

News Alert:
Please visit after market hours “Slippery After Dark” and add your favorite music or video clip to share with Lotion Boy and other slippery users on his website J

Legal note:
The article is intended solely for The Slippery Slope Investor Blog.
Any copying or distribution without the authors consent is prohibited

No comments:

Post a Comment