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Monday, February 28, 2011

Seasonal Trade

"Tomorrow marks the start of a new month, and the big question once again for traders is will the recent trend of rallies on the first trading day of the month remain in place?  Since the start of 2010, the S&P 500 has finished the first trading day of the month higher in twelve out of fourteen months (86%).  Additionally, the S&P 500 has risen more than one percent on the day nine out of fourteen times (64%). . . .

The first trading day of the month has had such a large impact on the equity market recently that if it wasn't for that day, instead of being up 18.3% since the start of 2010, the S&P 500 would only be up 2.3%!

Wow....Wolf Girl...Kinda Sad

Gold and Dollar Charts

Sunday, February 27, 2011

What Has Become of NASA...

What has happened to this once great agency which was once the leader in innovation and the race towards the stars.  We are left with a shuttle program which is now been scrapped and with nothing to replace it, sans the obligatory rocket into space.  We once had a vision for the final frontier, now we don't dream anymore.  We let the Chinese and Russians do it for us.

Charts of SLW San of Nifty Charts

Friday, February 25, 2011

Sooo 2001 and Soooo 2008! OMG!

Not A Good Sign

Shop to make breast milk ice cream- I want a franchise

LONDON (Reuters) – A specialist ice cream parlor plans to serve up breast milk ice cream and says people should think of it as an organic, free-range treat.
The breast milk concoction, called the "Baby Gaga," will be available from Friday at the Icecreamists restaurant in London's Covent Garden.
Icecreamists founder Matt O'Connor was confident his take on the "miracle of motherhood" and priced at a hefty 14 pounds ($23) a serving will go down a treat with the paying public.
The breast milk was provided by mothers who answered an advertisement on online mothers' forum Mumsnet.
Victoria Hiley, 35, from London was one of 15 women who donated milk to the restaurant after seeing the advert.
Hiley works with women who have problems breast-feeding their babies. She said she believes that if adults realized how tasty breast milk actually is, then new mothers would be more willing to breast-feed their own newborns.
"What could be more natural than fresh, free-range mother's milk in an ice cream? And for me it's a recession beater too -- what's the harm in using my assets for a bit of extra cash," Hiley said in a statement.
"I tried the product for the first time today -- it's very nice, it really melts in the mouth."
The Baby Gaga recipe blends breast milk with Madagascan vanilla pods and lemon zest, which is then churned into ice cream.
O'Connor said the Baby Gaga was just one of a dozen radical new flavors at the shop.
"Some people will hear about it and go, 'yuck' but actually it's pure, organic, free-range and totally natural," he said. "I had a Baby Gaga just this morning and I feel great."

Good Stock Hunting Today!

Thursday, February 24, 2011


Enemy of The State...The Military

The U.S. Army illegally ordered a team of soldiers specializing in "psychological operations" to manipulate visiting American senators into providing more troops and funding for the war, Rolling Stone has learned – and when an officer tried to stop the operation, he was railroaded by military investigators.

Think we are stopping here?

Right now it is 24% above its 250 simple moving average and 20.5% above its 250 exponential moving average. Either this sector enters into a congestion period to rest after the rally or it corrects.

A recent analysis by Bespoke Investment Group arrives at a similar conclusion. They report that there have only been 5 other times that the S&P Energy sector sub-index has managed to rally 40% over the span of 6 months. In those past instances, in the following month, 3 months and 6 months, the average return has been consistently negative.'

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Here's A New Game...Let's Bribe The People To Stay In Power!

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia announced financial support measures, worth an estimated SR135bn ($36bn), in a bid to avert the kind of popular unrest that has toppled leaders across the region and is now closing in on Libya’s Muammer Gaddafi.

Homage To Iggy

Decision Point by Doc Barter

Market -> Decision Point

On February 19, 2011 ( posted 20 Feb ) I pointed out that we will see weakness ahead in Nasdaq Composite. Well, the weakness started Monday, 22nd February on Globex Futures and continued on Tuesday during market hours.

Hereunder, I will describe several sectors and my opinion.
Nasdaq Composite
The daily chart does not look good and has created a tiny sell signal. It would take the Nasdaq to rally immediately or the picture will get worst.
The Nasdaq 60 minute chart looks oversold enough to bounce. Last time Nasdaq dropped below the one month EMA it started to rally. So we need to be aware of that.

(chart courtesy of

Dropped below the zero line and a level not seen of late. There was some serious selling going on.  The chart suggests we are in oversold territory and suggests this decline of yesterday should be taken a bit more seriously compared to others in past weeks.

(chart courtesy of

Market Breadth
Summation Index has turn down but not given a sell signal yet. Advance-Decline and Up-/ Down Volume has turned down as well.

(chart courtesy of

Dow Theory
Transport and Utility are sitting right on 50 EMA and need to be held or else we see some more selling in the market.

(chart courtesy of

Stock/Bond Ratio
As pointed out in my earlier article, the ratio should fall to 1.40 and we are on the way. Also pointed out that Bonds will rise and they did. It does suggest we see some capital shifting from equities back to bonds.

(charts courtesy of

Looks like the VIX has created a buy signal and signals further weakness ahead for the markets.
(chart courtesy of

US Oil Fund
Mentioned it in my last article that USO has a buy signal and here we are. Nice move up and looks bullish to me

(chart courtesy of stock charts)

HUI – American Gold Bugs
Shows still an uptrend but stochastic and red candle in daily looks not encouraging. Caution for my positions bought on 27 Jan 2011 is warranted. Have sold few stocks at yesterdays open and took partial profit. I also entered few PM stocks with buy signal.  Again, caution is warranted as PM stocks do fall with SPX.

(chart courtesy of

Gold is still in an uptrend and should not break 134 or 132 level. This would turn the current uptrend. So stay alert and keep longs until the signal says otherwise.

(chart courtesy of

Silver reached my target 33-35 USD and I am still very cautions as monthly chart is telling us that a steep correction is ahead of us. Every spike above the monthly trend line ended with a large correction. A break of 30 USD would signal the correction has started. So use your stops wisely. The monthly chart suggests a target of 22-24 USD 

(chart courtesy of

Overall the indicators do not look positive and caution is warranted for bulls. A break of pivot 1303 and 1291 will confirm the change in trend.
We need to respect the trend and do not fight is. Bull or Bears
Bulls need to act quick and bring SPX above 1330 to continue the uptrend.

Gold ->          bullish as long as GLD is trading above 132-134 USD
Silver ->        bullish as long as Silver is trading above 30 USD
HUI  ->          bullish

Copper->      Mentioned earlier that Copper is a short and we reached the 50dma.Lately Copper bounced back up from that level and it will be interesting to see if it will. Copper usually loses double of  a decline in SPX .
Short term Copper is oversold.

VIX ->           after forming a base at 16, VIX jumped 26% and closed at                    20.80. Chart suggests a buy signal

Bonds ->        moved up as expected and pointed out in earlier articles.

USO - >         created a buy signal

NGas ->         Neutral

USD ->          bounced to 50dma and dropped a bit. - Neutral

Silver and Gold Chart

The silver price has bounced 27% since January 28, a huge advance for a measly 16 trading days. It’s already soared past its 2010 high and was selling for less than $16 this time last year, a double in 12 months. So, is it pricy? Or should we ignore the run-up and keep buying?

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Tin Foil Hat Time

The sun is waking up from a long quiet spell. Last week it sent out the strongest flare for four years – and scientists are warning that earth should prepare for an intense electromagnetic storm that, in the worst case, could be a “global Katrina” costing the world economy $2,000bn.

Damn! He Is Ugly....Hope He Is Strung Up and Quartered

Doc Barter Market Musings Feb 20

Nasdaq Composite Short Term

The Nasdaq 100 has acted weak on Friday and sold off intraday towards 2382.50-2384. The NYSE Tick and Nasdaq 60 minute chart show some weakness ahead. That can be solved with a turn down to one week ema.
Summation Index, Up-Down Volume and Advance – Decline looks positive. If the short term up trend is intact, the Nasdaq would not fall below one week ema. The charts suggest a bit of weakness but overall trend is still up.

(charts courtesy of


Gold ->          slightly bullish
Silver ->        bullish as long as Silver is trading above 30 USD
HUI  ->          bullish

VIX ->           forming a base at 16

Bonds ->        recovering slightly

USO - >         creating slowly a buy signal

NGas ->         Neutral

USD ->          bounced to 50dma and dropped a bit. - Neutral

I will write later an article about Silver and the monthly chart as it does show a disturbing pattern.

Wow! N Bomb Used TO Describe Color of Furniture

Saturday, February 19, 2011


New photo of 'English Nessie' hailed as best yet

'The photograph, which shows an object with three humps breaching the surface of the lake, is said to be the best evidence yet of what some claim is a monster lurking beneath the depths.

It was taken on a camera phone by Tom Pickles, 24, while kayaking on the lake as part of a team building exercise with his IT company, CapGemini, last Friday.

Mr Pickles said he saw an animal the size of three cars speed past him on the lake and watched it for about 20 seconds.

He said: “It was petrifying and we paddled back to the shore straight away. At first I thought it was a dog and then saw it was much bigger and moving really quickly at about 10mph.

“Each hump was moving in a rippling motion and it was swimming fast.'

Makes Me Feel So Secure!

Chance of WMD attack on U.S. seen as 100 percent 
by Ted Purlain on February 16, 2011

A source inside the Federal Bureau of Investigation recently revealed that the probability of the United States being hit by weapons of mass destruction is 100 percent.

Dr. Vahid Majidi, the FBI’s assistant director in charge of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Directorate, told that such an attack could be conducted by foreign terrorists, lone wolf terrorists or criminals.

Majidi said such an attack could be launched using chemical, biological or radiological weapons, not necessarily a nuclear device.

Every year, American intelligence receives reports of terrorists obtaining WMDs, and when U.S. forces invaded Afghanistan they found that al-Qaeda was working on what was described as a nascent WMD program involving chemical and biological weaponry, reports.

So far, reports of foreign terrorists acquiring WMD have turned out to be erroneous, but Majidi’s directorate routinely investigates more than a dozen cases each year involving WMD in the United States.

“The notion of probability of a WMD attack being low or high is a moot point because we know the probability is 100 percent,” Majidi said, according to “We’ve seen this in the past, and we will see it in the future. There is going to be an attack using chemical, biological or radiological material.”


Friday, February 18, 2011

Move Over OPEC...New Kid on Block!

'Israelis have always lamented that Moses led the ancient Israelites to the one patch of land in the Middle East bereft of energy resources. It turns out the sea offered more promise. At the end of December, a huge natural gas discovery was confirmed in the Eastern Mediterranean inside Israel’s territorial waters. Once referred to as an “energy island” that not only lacked energy reserves itself but was also cut off from the huge energy resources of the nearby Arab nations, Israel may well become over the next decade an energy exporter. 

The discovery of the Leviathan gas deposit in the Levant Basin marks a major development for Israel, with the potential for significant economic and strategic advantages, as well as implications for Europe, Russia, and the natural gas market. . . . The Leviathan field, discovered by a consortium led by Houston-based Noble Energy, is the world’s largest offshore gas find in the past decade and vaults Israel into the ranks of the largest gas reserve holders in the world. (There are some indications that Leviathan might contain a world-scale oil deposit as well.)'  

However... 'Israel has a portion of the Levant Basin, but it is shared by Gaza, Lebanon, Cyprus, and the Turkey-dominated Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Lebanon and Israel have exchanged tough rhetoric over border demarcation, and Beirut has already taken its case to the U.N.—and that’s not the worst of it. If there is another round of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, a Hezbollah armed with tens of thousands of rockets might well target Israeli gas facilities.'

The Golden Key

Best Investment Strategy

'It only happens about twice in the average lifetime, but it’s the single most powerful stock investment strategy I’ve ever discovered.

In the past 80 years, it only occurred twice, but if you had simply bought and sold stocks according to this strategy, you would have turned a $1,000 initial investment into over $21 million with just seven transactions.

You would have missed the biggest run-ups in the stock market, but you would have also missed all of the biggest draw-downs.

The best part is that it’s an incredibly simple strategy to follow. It requires no special math skills and it can be used by anyone with even a discount brokerage account. A small initial stake is not a hindrance either. The two most important components (as with any long-term investment) are time and patience. . . .

Okay, enough disclaimers, here’s my strategy.

It’s based entirely on the Dow/Gold ratio.

In short, when the Dow/Gold ratio is at parity, that is, when one ounce of gold is equal to the Dow index number, I’m buying the Dow.

When the ratio hits 25 or higher, I’m selling stocks and buying gold.

I’ll only sell my gold and buy stocks when the ratio gets back down near parity.

So how does that stone-simple strategy turn $1,000 into over $21 million?

It’s pretty simple: $1,000 into the stock market in 1932 turned into $20,000 in 1966 as the Dow moved from 50 up to nearly 1000. That $20,000 put into gold turned into over $450,000 in 1980 as gold went from $35 an ounce to $800.

Again, the Dow/Gold ratio was near parity in 1980, so we’re buying the Dow.

Over the next 20 years, the Dow went from about 800 to 8,000 – which turns our $450,000 stake into $4.5 million.

But we’re not done.

We did miss out on the Dow’s run-up from 8,000 to nearly 12,000 in late 1999/early 2000. But instead, we bought gold at $300 an ounce in 1998. Today, we’d be sitting on about $21 million worth of gold.

And so now, we just have to wait for the Dow/Gold ratio to get back close to parity in order to get into stocks.

The downsides to this strategy are pretty obvious – namely, it could take 50 years or longer for the Dow to get back to parity with gold. Right now, we’re only 31 years into the cycle, so if 50 years is the “normal” Dow/Gold cycle, then we have 19 years left to wait.

But that’s why you have other investments.'

Might Be The Greatest Cartoon Ever!



My Chart Analysis Says Sell!

chart of the day, music industry 1973-2009, feb 2011

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Hope For Humanity And Our Future Has Vanished!

Doc Barter Market Musings - Feb 17th

17 February 2011

Market – Very Cautious -

Those who have read my articles in January 2011 were aware that I could not share the opinion of market top callings. As pointed out, the weekly chart had no sell signal. Meanwhile the SPX has risen further and NDX has been again the leader of late. In my last article dated 12 February 2011, I pointed out that a target of 1377 (1370-1380) is possible as it is the 78.2% retracement level from October 2007 high to March 2009 low. Well, we are now trading above 1330 in SPX and we are not far away from that target.

Let me make it very clear, I myself have acted very cautious towards a very complacent market and YES I reduced my portfolio drastically and of course a bit too early. No harm done though.

40.00% - Equity long since end July/early August 2009
Mix of Emerging Markets, Agriculture, Mining,
Oil & Gas Stocks, Fertilizer, Coal, tiny Financials

2.50% - PM sector long since 27 Jan 2011
2.50% - Long China & Vietnam 27 Jan 2011
5.00% - High Yield Bond long since July 2009

5.00% - PM Sector short from early December sold 26 -27 Jan
7.50% - Emerging Market shorts early November sold 14 Feb
2.50% - Basic Materials Short bought mid January =>shafted
7.50% - US Index shorts (bought 1265-1291-1299) => shafted

40.00% - Cash holdings increased since early November selling
Emerging Markets, early December selling some
Commodity holdings.

Look Out for –>

  • SPX approaching 1370-1380
  • SPY/BOND Ratio falling
  • Copper falling
  • Bonds rising
  • VIX forming a multiple base at 16

(charts courtesy of

Nothing much has changed since I showed several indicators dated 12 February 2011. So it is not worth showing them again as they are still pointing up. Dow Theory however has seen a sector change as Utility has dropped to 50dma as Transport did earlier.

Gold -> neutral
Silver -> slightly bullish and waiting to break 31 USD
HUI -> waiting to break 545-550

VIX -> forming a base at 16

Bonds -> recovered slightly and bounced as previously expected

NGas -> Neutral

USD -> bounced to 50dma and dropped a bit. - Neutral

I am not convinced yet with PM Sector as Gold is lagging and Silver is crawling along the monthly trend line.

I do however like very much Agriculture. Lean Pork, Sugar, Orange Juice are ready to break out. Said it earlier this year, my best guess for 2011 is that Agricultural Sector will outshine in 2011 as they lagged a bit in 2010.