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Thursday, January 31, 2013

War Sucks

Photo submitted to r/HistoryPorn by M3k4nism on 1/31/2013. According to This Day in History, on March 9, 1945:

On this day, U.S. warplanes launch a new bombing offensive against Japan, dropping 2,000 tons of incendiary bombs on Tokyo over the course of the next 48 hours. Almost 16 square miles in and around the Japanese capital were incinerated, and between 80,000 and 130,000 Japanese civilians were killed in the worst single firestorm in recorded history.

Early on March 9, Air Force crews met on the Mariana Islands of Tinian and Saipan for a military briefing. They were planning a low-level bombing attack on Tokyo that would begin that evening, but with a twist: Their planes would be stripped of all guns except for the tail turret. The decrease in weight would increase the speed of each Superfortress bomber-and would also increase its bomb load capacity by 65 percent, making each plane able to carry more than seven tons. Speed would be crucial, and the crews were warned that if they were shot down, all haste was to be made for the water, which would increase their chances of being picked up by American rescue crews. Should they land within Japanese territory, they could only expect the very worst treatment by civilians, as the mission that night was going to entail the deaths of tens of thousands of those very same civilians. "You're going to deliver the biggest firecracker the Japanese have ever seen," said U.S. Gen. Curtis LeMay. . . .

Doug Casey and Peter Schiff

Why The Bid On Oil?

US crude oil prices have been moving up for nearly two months now. There are a number of possible explanations for this strength in crude, including ongoing Mideast unrest, expectations of higher demand from China, and of course the QE-driven "risk-on" trade.
MarketWatch: - Those include improving economic data, rising Mideast tensions, changing U.S. oil market fundamentals — with greater oil-export capacity out of Cushing, Okla., and the closure of a New Jersey refinery — and an increasing number of speculative hedge-fund net “long” market positions, or bets that oil prices will rise, he said.
March-2013 WTI contract (source: barchart)

But two recent developments make this rally particularly unusual.

1. US crude oil market is very well supplied. Inventories are materially above their the 5-year range.

Source: EIA

2. While some economists are talking about improved GDP growth in the US, the data so far is showing something quite different.

Near-term growth expectations in the US remain modest, particularly given the expiry of the payroll tax cut. Normally, slow economic growth and record supplies should limit a rally in energy prices. But these are not normal times and two other economic factors have taken center stage.

1. US monetary base hit a record last week as the Fed's asset purchase program goes into full swing. This is contributing to the "risk-on" trade.

2. And the US dollar has weakened in response, creating a positive backdrop for commodities.

US Dollar Index (DXY) (source: MarketWatch)

Yes, Mideast tensions and expectations of higher demand from Asia certainly contribute to this rise in oil prices. But absent major international supply disruptions, it will be the US monetary expansion and dollar weakness that will push crude higher - in spite of relatively weak economic fundamentals and a well supplied marketplace.

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Saint Santelli Unplugged

Substitute Teacher

Obama's Wall Street Cronies Get Off With No Criminal Prosecution

Johnny Effing Football

A Picture Says A Thousand Words

SP500 vs consumer confidence Whats Wrong with this Picture?

If this does not tell you the whole story about government and fed intervention nothing will.  The illusion of a "recovery" that has been manufactured by the private sector is now dead.  The divergence in the "market" and how people feel about the economy is so drastic it is shouting, "something is rotten in Denmark!"

The market, which I use in loose terms, is a proxy for the Fed, World Banks and Governments to keep the rigged game going.  It is banking on a rise in your 401k to make you keep spending and borrowing, but as we see in the graph, the people aren't buying it anymore.  The gig is up.  But these statist government bought economists will argue that  unemployment is now going down because people are going back to work, but these same people won't tell you is that this is an illusion, a trick.  People are merely falling off the employment map as they have given up looking for a job that no longer exists for them.  They use gimmicks and lies to try and keep us all thinking we are living in the era of goldilocks when all we need to do when we need money is shit it out, and presto, we can buy a new Maserati!

These same forces have been hammering away at gold, silver and miners these past weeks for the same purposes of as above but for nefarious reasons.  

You see, this is the safe haven trade, this is the trade of the 1% ers out there who understand the tricks and lies of these groups, that know that this will all end badly as you cannot print your way to prosperity and the only way to preserve and grow wealth during these dire times ahead will be in precious metals and miners.  So naturally, these agencies have been using sorcery and witchcraft to keep a lid on these prices, but they are failing.  You see if they were winning the dollar would be rising, but it is perilously close to falling off the cliff.

I am hopeful that the sheeple who are discouraged with what they are seeing out in the "real world" will now act and protect themselves for what lies ahead.

Monday, January 28, 2013

End of Road

Interesting Analog

Written January 28, 2013 by Michael Harris - Price Action Lab Blog.

After the March 2009 stock market low, a new pattern of correlation between S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 emerged. The basic features of this pattern are a higher correlation between the two indices during up moves than before the financial crisis and a drop of the correlation to the highs seen before the March 2009 lows just before corrections occur. Currently, the correlation is at levels reached before the corrections of 2010 and 2011.
This pattern is interesting because it shows how the 252-day rolling correlation between S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 increased after the March 2009 low and stayed above the highs realized since the mid 1980s . Before the 2010 and 2011 corrections the correlation reverted towards +0.90. During the uptrends in-between the corrections the correlation stayed close to +0.95:
It could be that this is a random pattern and it does not indicate a coming correction for 2013. Obviously, investment decisions should never be based on only one pattern but on a collection of patterns that together point to a very high probability trade with an expected gain much higher than the expected loss. 

The Great Rick Rule

Sunday, January 27, 2013

Why People Need Guns

Reason Market Will Crash This Year

Published by Sober Look on 1/26/2013.

This mass media headline should make any institutional investor cringe - as contrarian flags begin to go up.

Why Gold Will Trade Above $3500.00

My Dear Extended Family,
Think of the value of the gold reserves of the euro with their gold marked to market by the ECB. Think of the percentage then that their gold reserves would be as a percentage of fiat currency held in reserve. Think then of the primary market in gold by default moving into the cash market as the criminal paper gold market is disgraced via delivery failures. In my early life both my wife and I were Comex members. Who else commenting about gold has that real time experience of how you play markets? Who commenting out there would have the slightest idea of how one goes about making a cash market in gold as was made with Sinclair Global Arbitrage.
The dollar and the euro have been at war since the day the euro rose above par to the dollar. Now look at the euro chart in terms of dollars. View the transition of the euro to a bull market and the transition of the modest recovery in the dollar re-entering into a decade long major bear market. This is the foundation set in steel that will launch the next major bull phase in the gold price very soon.
When you look back at this multi-month gold market operation you will know what it was all about. Gold mining is a terrific business, truth be known, now being condemned by all the merchants of bullion in the gold community. Who needs enemies when you have such friends right within the community? Bullion is clearly a risk only to price but condemning gold shares is total nonsense utilized by PM scoundrels to market other gold products.
1.3460 0.0000 (0.00%)
2013-01-26 18:37:57, 0 min delay
Now look at the Trade weighted US Dollar Index:
2013-01-16: 98.670 Index January 1997=100   Last 5 Observations
Weekly, Ending Wednesday, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Updated: 2013-01-22 3:32 PM CST
The next phase of the Gold Market will be driven monetarily. This phase will take gold to the point whereby marking the gold reserves of the deficit nations to the market move towards balance and balance will be struck.
Every problem we have from national to private is a balance sheet problem. As QE is the only tool to feign solvency, Gold is the only tool to accomplish solvency. Convertibility of fiat paper to gold will not re-occur, but currencies will cease their death rattle as national balance sheets are in fact balanced.

Friday, January 25, 2013


Bird Man

New Highs...Bullish or Bearish?

I have found it works well to make price prove itself by breaking out, but then to wait patiently for the (almost) inevitable pullback to buy or sell. Article published by The Right Side of the Chart on January 25, 2013.

It is widely accepted as common knowledge in trading that new highs in securities such as stocks, bonds or commodities (or any index for that matter) is a bullish technical event.  The simple logic behind it is that when a stock makes a new high, everyone holding the stock at that point is profitable and therefore, you don’t have any remorseful buyers sitting at a loss, praying for the stock to get back to their entry point so they can sell and just breakeven.
However, there are times when breakouts to new highs can actually be very bearish technical events.  This is most often the case during topping phases in the markets when the institutions (smart money) are handing the bag to the retail traders or investors (often referred to as the dumb money)….no hate mail please as this is just a general term and certainly does not apply to yours truly or anyone reading this post!
What prompted me to take a look at these two charts below, the $RUT (Russell 2000 small cap index) and the IYT (Transportation sector etf) is the nearly jaw-dropping run that they have both been experiencing since the November 16th lows (I’m sure there’s a good “freight train” pun in there somewhere with the IYT).  Any way, in glancing at a longer-term view of these charts, what jumped out to me was how these two recent juggernauts have a history of sparking sharp sell-offs or outright trend reversals almost immediately after breaking out to new highs.  Admittedly, there’s isn’t a very large sampling of new highs (at least multi-year highs) on the $RUT but even when you zoom down to the smaller scale new highs within the larger uptrends, you can see that prices usually reverse within a few weeks of taking out the previous reaction high and where one might logically expect prices to find support on that previous reaction high as it’s retested from above, most of the corrections have far exceeded that “expected” support level.$RUT weekly new highs
On this IYT weekly chart below, you can see a similar history of the two previous sharp sell-offs that followed the May 23rd, 2008 (week of) breakout to a new (almost) 52 week high as well as the next marginal new high made on the week of July 8, 2011 (note: IYT did actually barely eke out a slightly new high about two months earlier).  Price patterns don’t repeat indefinitely and of course, even if history does repeat here once again, these are weekly charts with patterns that, just like the large divergences and wedge patterns forming on the US indices, could take weeks or even months to play out, assuming they do play out.IYT weekly new highs

Police State Is Where We Live

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Much Needed Pep Talk

My Dear Friends,
Please do not fall for this classic manipulation. Please do not make the gold banks happy by giving away your physical. Please do not throw away gold shares because the hedge fund have worked black PR so well that they even have convinced some well known community physical gold merchants of their bear position of shares.
How many times have you seen this not to recognize what it is? Well, this is the big one and last play to denude you of your position. Remember, for every seller there is a buyer. Has not every reaction in gold since $248 attempted to do just that? This big one is no different.
Fundamentally we are approaching the period in gold when it will move up the most points in the shortest period of time. The paper gold market is being used to shake the bullish tree harder this time than any time before because of what is to come. Fear is the most powerful emotion in markets and it is being used perfectly to enrich the grand names of finance at your expense.
Remember how you felt during the first reaction above $1000? This is nothing different. The take downs are planned for times when the market is least liquid either inter day or inter market. This is not liquidation, it is price movement only. I used to do this for a living. I don’t think, but rather I know.
Clearly the gold banks will try to get gold into a capitulation point. Hear me: We are right in front of that time when the market performs a classic bottom both in shares and physical. From this point gold is going to and through $3500. That is why what happened today is happening in the first place.
If you are unable to buy at this time there is one thing you can do. There is one way to get into the fight and out of the stands. That act is do nothing, and do not capitulate. Let them play the price game, but give them nothing whatsoever of yours.
You can exhaust the downside manipulation by not letting it work in the classical terms. You can get into the scrap and not just be on sidelines by calling their bluff no matter how much temporary pain needs to be confronted. We are more powerful than even you know. We have what they want, and we can simply say, NO!
Call your gold companies and ask how their affairs are coming along. Now you must know. Do not pussy foot with them. You want answers
Communicate with me and I will do my best to help you through this:
Please do not be duped by the giant bastards playing you. Every day that passes is one day closer to the day manipulators change sides to long, just like they did in the 1970s.
All this will be old history on my upcoming 72nd birthday. I think you know the date, but no way am I going to inform the gold banks and Fed that read us religiously.
Please let them play their numbers game but do not give them one ounce of your gold or one share of your gold companies for whom all things are progressing well. Soon you will know that you beat them at their own game for the first time. You can be proactive by simply having courage of your and my convictions, therefore not giving them any of your product. There will be great satisfaction when you face down the bully who is basically full of it. This is our last battle before victory. I will be there and I want you to be also. Let them play their price game but do not give them product. Stand tall and stare the bully down. He will flee as this is the last thing he expects.
Have my courage by knowing that we are absolutely correct in markets made by devils that are bullies whose occupation is theft. Gold is the ultimate battle between good and evil. This period of the market is the deciding period of the Mahabharata. This is war and you are in the middle of it. Stand firm and stay the course. Now that the gold banks have us surrounded they cannot get away.
Consider this “Broken Arrow” and please ladies and gentlemen, prepare to defend yourself by not giving in to the purposes of the devils we oppose.
We will win, I promise you.

Corporatism Is Not Capitalism

Kenneth Guillespie
Habitual drunkard Kenneth Guillespie, 64, was found half-naked and screaming in agony next to the remains of the five-foot snow sculpture. And when he arrived for treatment at North Central infirmary in Blackburn (UK), shocked medics found the booze-soaked layabout was suffering from FROSBITE of the JOHNSON. Someone At the hospital said that “Ken’s a regular visitor to A&E. Normally it’s just bumps and scrapes – or someone has giving him an ass whoopin’ .
“Occasionally he’ll get trapped in something or get an object wedged up him. But this is the most bizarre mishap yet.”
“Frosbite of the penis may sound funny but it can be very serious indeed.”
“Frosbite can cause infection and gangrene and ultimately this may lead to the member being amputed.”
“From what I heard, Ken is still in one piece”.
But The unemployed former postman may not remain in one peice if the return to the scene of his whitemarish coupling – as local residents are said to be on the warpath.
Ian Jessop of the Ramsgreave and Brownhill Community Security said: “If that dirty fucker comes back here after what he did. I won’t be responsible for the reaction of the community.
“Several people have already vowed to dismember him after what he did to the kids’ snowman.”
“He left” a pile of empty bottles, a wrecked snowman and a trail of frozen man-juice in the middle of the community recreation ground.”
“This bugger’s worse than Jimmy Savile.”
Last night Guillespie was said to be recovering with friends in nearby Darwen, though could not be contacted as Sunday Sport went to press.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Deadliest Places On Earth

A Correction Is A Comin'!

The great market prognosticators have by now came out with their 2013 predictions about financial markets. It seems to me to be a fool’s game to try to predict what financial markets are going to do in the future.
I want to be clear in stating that I do not know what is going to happen in the future. I do not know where the S&P 500 Index is going to trade tomorrow let alone 6 months from now. Most market pundits simply will not admit to this fact.
These same market pundits seemingly are unable to be honest about their own fallibility. In their own mind they believe it undermines their credibility or will hurt their forward sales for some book or strategy they are going to unveil. I for one do not prescribe to that notion, I believe in telling the truth.
The truth is that these so-called market experts do not know anymore than you or I about price action in the distant future. However, what I do know is that forward price action remains a mystery until its unveiled in the present.
Instead of wasting time discussing potential price action in the future, why not focus on a few pieces of information that have occurred that are known facts right now. I think the chart below points out that in the intermediate time frame, equity indexes are reaching extreme overbought conditions.
As can be seen above, the number of stocks trading above their 50 period moving averages is reaching close to the highest levels in the past 5 years. Many times when these price levels have been reached we witness a correction at the very least and any short-term gains are usually given back in short order. This is not to say that prices are going to sell-off tomorrow or in the next few weeks, however it is a warning that a correction is likely lurking in the not-so-distant future.
To help confirm this notion, a quick look at the Volatility Index (VIX) demonstrates just how much complacency there is in the short-term spot VIX price which is currently trading below 5 year lows. For novice readers when the VIX moves lower the outcome is typically bullish for the S&P 500 Index and when the VIX moves higher the reaction is typically bearish in terms of the S&P 500 Index.
As can be seen above, the VIX is trading near the bottom of its recent range. This helps confirm the strength we have seen the past few weeks, however a reversal seems likely in the near future. Should the VIX pick up considerably it would have a negative impact on the S&P 500 Index. Furthermore, if we go out several months in time the Volatility Index Term Structure steepens wildly.
What this means is that traders and money managers have bid up forward VIX contracts in an attempt to hedge against a variety of perceived risk. I would also point out that at the moment February monthly options contracts are cheap relative to their historical volatility levels. However, the VIX could rally violently higher should the appropriate chain of events take place in the months ahead.
There are several catalysts in the short-term which will have a major impact on price action for the broader indexes. This coming week we will have earnings from major companies such as IBM, AAPL, and GOOG which all have the potential to move the tape significantly in either direction.
The other more obvious short-term inflection point is the dreaded U.S. debt ceiling debacle which is likely to begin permeating the financial media as the deadline for action draws near. In recent history both houses of Congress and the Executive Branch have struggled to achieve compromise until the 11th hour. The fiscal cliff was one issue, but the debt ceiling issue has the potential to have a major impact on financial markets.
Just to put into context what happened back in 2011 when Congress could not reach a compromise regarding a debt ceiling increase, the S&P 500 Index had the following reaction as shown below.
Obviously there are significant unknowns regarding how the debt ceiling process will unfold in 2013. However, what is known is that should the politicians wait until the 11th hour equity indexes could force their hands yet again.
Additionally the threat of credit rating agencies downgrading U.S. government debt is a major concern. The outcome of this decision alone has the potential to devastate investment portfolios should the government have a partial shutdown as a result of a failure to reach an agreement regarding the debt ceiling.
What is important to understand is that the longer-term price action in the future is impossible to know at this point. We have major earnings reports which are about to be released over the next few weeks which presents significant risks to the broader indexes in both directions. Furthermore we have a major macro event that is facing us and will have to be addressed in the next 5 – 8 weeks.
The outcome of these events as this point is entirely unknown. I would also point out that in 2011 prior to the debt ceiling debacle we saw equity prices rally higher in late June of 2011 while the VIX traded down near recent lows at that time. After a period of consolidation equity indexes remained patient and gave the politicians time.
Eventually the price action in risk assets forced both political parties and the President to come together. As shown in the chart above, the S&P 500 lost nearly 19% in less than 4 weeks of trading sessions. Even the most skeptical politician was forced into submission by Wall Street and the financial media.
Will history rhyme with the recent past? Will we see a compromise in advance of the dreaded shutdown date? Will the debt ceiling outcome create a major paradigm shift in U.S. financial markets and U.S. politics?
Unfortunately, there is no one that can tell us with any certainty what is about to happen in the next 5 – 8 weeks, let alone later this year. After all of the forthcoming analysis and discussion in the weeks ahead, price action will continue to remain a mystery until the debt ceiling situation is behind us. Until then, caution is warranted in both price directions. Trade safe.

Why Did U.S. Mint Run Out of Silver?

3-D Franken Meat

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When you buy some beef at the butcher's, you know it comes from cattle that once mooed and chewed.
But imagine if this cut of meat, just perfect for your Sunday dinner, had been made from scratch - without slaughtering any animal.
US start-up Modern Meadow believes it can do just that - by making artificial raw meat using a 3D bioprinter.
Peter Thiel, one of Silicon Valley's most prominent venture capitalists, Paypal co-founder and early Facebook investor, has just backed the company with $350,000 (£218,000).
Set up by father-son team Gabor and Andras Forgacs, the start-up wants to take 3D printing to a whole new level.
For three-dimensional printing, solid objects are made from a digital model. It's also known as additive manufacturing: to make the structure tiny droplets are "printed" - layer by layer - via a carefully controlled inkjet nozzle.

Bioink containing various types of cell is printed into moulds made from agarose gel.
The principle has been around for more than a decade, and is already used successfully to create jewellery, toys, furniture, cars, and even - most recently - parts of a gun.
Some researchers have also managed to print food like chocolate.
But Prof Gabor Forgacs, of the University of Missouri, says bioprinting something that is part of a living creature is much more challenging than making an earring or a chocolate bar.
"We are printing live material - [the] cells are alive when we are printing them," he says.

"Three-dimensional printing has taken off big time, and printing things such as whipped cream is just another application of it - but it's no big deal.

"Printing biomaterial is an entirely different ball game."
Prof Forgacs says that he and his team have already managed to produce a prototype, but it is not yet suitable for consumption.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Looking Golden

Precious Metals Charts Galore

In this essay we will present the expectation for the price of gold to rise during January and February, based on seasonal trends.  Charts are courtesy unless indicated. The energy for a rise in gold prices comes from at least four different sources.
#1 U.S. Federal Government deficits.
federal government deficits January 2013 gold silver price news
This chart courtesy Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and shows the widening of the U.S. Federal Government deficit since 2008.  The gap shows no signs of narrowing, as it requires increased taxation (which stifles economic activity), or decreased spending (something Mr. Obama and most politicians find hard to do).  Deficits are a source of energy for precious metals (as printing presses are used to make up the shortfall).
#2 Real Interest Rates.
real interest rates January 2013 gold silver price news
This chart shows the ‘real rate’ of interest.  It is derived at by deducting price inflation as expressed by the CPI, from current Treasury Yield.  This ‘real rate’ is presently -1.75%.  This means money that is held in Treasuries is losing out by more than 1.75% per year (paying taxes on the yield adds insult to injury).   In view of the fact that the official CPI rate is regularly understating the actual rate of price inflation, the ‘real rate of inflation’ is even worse than this chart portrays.  In any event, this negative trend provides energy for gold and silver to rise in price. The Safest Way To Leverage The Coming Gold Mania
#3.  The expected rate of price inflation.
expected inflation rate January 2013 gold silver price news
Featured is the daily bar chart for TIP, the bond fund that is indexed to inflation.  The people who buy shares in this fund are concerned about price inflation, and the trend is clearly upward bound.
#4 Currency destruction.
currency destruction January 2013 gold silver price news
This chart courtesy Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows the MZM Money stock continues to rise.  In the past four years the Obama administration, in concert with the U.S. Congress, has added five trillion dollars to the U.S. Federal debt.
At the same time five Central Banks printed seven trillion dollars in new currency.  Thus twelve trillion dollars that did not exist in 2008 are now looking for a home.  This monetary destruction produces price inflation (after a lag – as it takes the average person a while to catch on).
“Like gold, US dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply.  But the US government has a technology called the printing press that allows us to print as many dollars as the government wishes, at essentially no cost.”  …Ben Bernanke.
gold price 2006 till January 2013 gold silver price news
Featured is the weekly gold chart. Since the gold bull market began in 2002, there have been three major corrections.  The first one began in 2006.  It took 71 weeks before a new record high price was established.  Gold then rose by 50%.  The next correction began in 2008.  77 weeks later gold established a new record high.  Price then rose by 90%.  The current correction began in 2011.  It has been 72 weeks since the last time gold was at a record high price.  In five weeks we will have matched the 2008 price dip duration.  As long as the four ‘drivers’ mentioned above remain in place, the expectation is that gold will continue its overall rise in price.  To take advantage of this trend it behoves us to ‘BUY LOW SO WE CAN SELL HIGH.’
gold seasonal 30years January 2013 gold silver price news
This chart courtesy shows the seasonal pattern of the price of gold on a monthly basis.  Historically gold moves higher during January and February -especially when the price has dipped during December, (as it did in December 2012).
chinese gold imports January 2013 gold silver price news
 This chart courtesy shows the amount of gold that is moving through Hong Kong into China.  Last month 63 tons of gold moved into Chinese vaults.  According to 90.8 tons moved into Chinese vaults in November.  This was the second highest gross import number of 2012, double the 47 tons imported in October (which many saw, incorrectly, as an indication of China’s waning interest in the yellow metal), and brings the Year to Date total to a massive 783 tons of gold.
GLD January 2013 gold silver price news
 Featured is GLD the gold bullion ETF.  The Accumulation/Distribution line is at the top.  Usually, when price drops while the A/D line rises, pressure builds on price to follow the A/D line.  The supporting indicators (green lines), are positive.  The 50DMA is in positive alignment to the 200DMA (oval).  A breakout at the blue arrow will be the first sign that a new uptrend is underway.
gold investment google January 2013 gold silver price news
 This chart courtesy Google Trends shows the interest in ‘gold investment’ as reflected by web searches.  High points on the chart coincide with tops in gold and bottoms (as now) coincide with bottoms in the price of gold.  The trend is turning up, and that is a  positive sign for gold.
Gold at year’s end has been higher than at the beginning, every year since yr 2000.  The gain during 2012 was 6.9%.
2001 = + 1.96;
2002 = + 24.8%;
2003 = +19.5%;
2004 = +5.35%;
2005 = +18.36%;
2006 = +22.95%;
2007 = +31.34%;
2008 = +5.14%;
2009 = +24.3%;
2010 =+29.8%;
2011 =+14.2%;
2012 = +6.9%.
The average is 17.05%.  Please note that the % rise in every year below the average of 17.05% was followed by a year where the rise was higher than the average.   Odds are (no guarantee – just odds), that the 2013 increase will exceed 17.05%.
Silver stands to benefit from the same energy that is causing gold to rise in price.
silver price 2008 till January 2013 gold silver price news
Featured is the weekly silver chart.  The uptrend is clearly defined by the blue trendlines.  A breakout at the blue arrow will be the first sign of a new ‘leg up.’
PSLV trust January 2013 gold silver price news
Featured is PSLV the silver trust.  The Accumulation/Distribution line is at the top.  Usually when the A/D line rises, it puts pressure on price to follow, as happened in August.  As long as the AD continues to rise, the expectation is for price to follow.

Welcome Home Deutschland Gold

More Proof Gun Control Does Not Work

Saturday, January 19, 2013


Written by Adam Shell, USA TODAY, January 17, 2013.

The current bull market on Wall Street has one thing in common with late comedian Rodney Dangerfield: It don't get no respect!
Numbers don't lie. The Standard and Poor's 500, an index of large-company U.S. stocks, eked out a fresh five-year high Thursday at 1480.94. It is up 119% since the bull market began on March 9, 2009, which means it is a member of the so-called "100% Gain Club," and just one of nine bull markets in the benchmark index's history to post a triple-digit gain, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
The current bull, which followed the worst bear market, or market plunge, since the Great Depression, is also 1,407 days old, which ranks eighth and also puts it in the "1,000 Day Club."
In cash terms, the stock market has generated $10.5 trillion in paper wealth since the bear market ended, according to Wilshire Associates.
So why is this historically significant market advance, which has enabled the S&P 500 to climb within 6% of its Oct. 9, 2007, all-time high of 1565.15, so despised? So disrespected? So distrusted?
"It is the Rodney Dangerfield of bull markets," says Gene Needles, CEO of American Beacon Funds. He says most investors don't know how strong the market is because they have focused on short-term volatility. "They think the market is down. They've been reading all of the dire headlines. The financial crisis. Fiscal cliff. Debt-ceiling debate. Europe. Pick your poison. It hasn't felt like a bull market. It's not like in the 1990s when there was a ticker-tape-parade-type atmosphere every day on Wall Street."
The stellar statistics, of course, tell a story of success, not failure. But, oddly, investors, especially ones on Main Street, don't seem to care. For much of the last 44 months, most investors, many of them psychologically and financially scarred by the 2008-09 financial crisis, have sworn off the stock market.
Instead, in search of perceived safety and a good night's sleep, they have plowed the bulk of their life savings into bonds or deposited their cash in banks that pay about the same zero interest rate as the mattress-turned-piggy-bank that gained acclaim after the 1929 stock market crash.
In the five years ended in 2012, individual investors have yanked an estimated $557 billion out of U.S. stock mutual funds, while $1 trillion has been funneled into bond funds, according to data from the Investment Company Institute, a fund company trade group.
It's as if investors can't forgive the market for burning them badly in the rout a few years ago; a plunge that was less than a decade removed from the tech-stock-inspired crash in 2000. Like a spurned lover, investors have been unwilling to give the stock market a second chance, or even a third chance.
"Investors don't really trust the market itself, so they don't trust the rally," says Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group.
Despite the lingering pessimistic sentiment, the fact that the stock market keeps rising ever closer to its old all-time high in the face of bad news is a positive sign, counters Needles.
"It's more of a sign of a market breakout than a top," Needles says. "Investors have a renewed appetite for risk."
There are other theories as to why stocks have lost their luster as the go-to investment to get rich, save for college and fund a retirement nest egg.
Andres Garcia-Amaya, a global markets strategist at JPMorgan Funds who happens to think the current stock market rally has a ways to go, blames investor complacency. The bond market has been in a bull market for three decades, and investors scared off by the volatility of stocks, he says, found comfort in the solid and competitive performance of bonds vs. stocks over the years, especially the big outperformance during and after the 2008 financial crisis.
Another big factor causing investors' aversion to stocks to grow in recent years is that they have been unable to shake the bad memories of past stock market plunges, says Doug Sandler, chief equity officer at RiverFront Investment Group.
"We have been conditioned over the past 12 years into thinking that buying stocks is a bad decision, because they always get beat up at some point," Sandler says.
Adds Bespoke's Hickey: "With two 50% haircuts in the last 12 years, investors think it is just a matter of time before we get the next 50% drop. So they have just given up."
The other thing that has given investors pause, Sandler adds, is the fact that the market rally since 2009 has been driven in large part by policies and actions of lawmakers in Congress and central bankers, such as the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. Some Wall Street bears argue that the gains have been artificially inflated by the stimulus injected into markets by bankers. These drastic and unprecedented measures used by central bankers to reignite the economy, revive risk taking and boost investor confidence are akin to "steroids" or "sugar high," critics say.
What's more, having politicians and bankers determine the fate of markets makes it hard to handicap the future.
"That stuff is really hard to forecast," says Sandler. "I can't tell you what (ECB head) Mario Draghi is thinking right now. We can guess. But it is different than trying to figure out how Apple's iPhone is selling. And that scares people."
But that doesn't mean that there is not a case to be made for stocks.
Ironically, while the irrational exuberance of the go-go 1990s, or even the heady days of the real estate boom in the mid-2000s, is long gone, the market, at least by common measures used by Wall Street to measure its vital signs, is in far better shape today and it points to more gains ahead, Sandler argues. Back in late 1999 and early 2000, when tech stocks were king and nearing a pre-crash peak, the S&P 500 was trading at more than 30 times its estimated earnings.
Today the market is trading at just 13 times estimated profits for 2013, which is below the long-term average of 15 times earnings. The market's current price-to-earnings multiple is even lower than it was at the stock market's last peak in October 2007, Sandler says. Corporate earnings, which slowed sharply in the second half of 2012, are expected to re-accelerate and grow roughly 10.6% this year, according to current analyst estimates tracked by Thomson Reuters.
So the stock market is not wildly overvalued and screaming that a top is near.
"Are we bumping up against super-high valuations? The answer is no," says Sandler, adding that the market is reasonably priced.
Not only are stocks not overvalued, they also look attractive relative to bonds, which currently are trading at, or near, record-high prices and sporting historically low yields that make it tough for investors to grow their money and build enough wealth to meet their long-term goals, says Garcia-Amaya. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond is 1.83%. In contrast, stocks in the S&P 500 that pay dividends have an average yield of 2.8%, says S&P Dow Jones Indices.
"Relative to fixed-income, stocks look favorable," says Garcia-Amaya. . . .