Tuesday, June 18, 2013
Sunday, June 16, 2013
Saturday, June 15, 2013
S&P
June 15, 2013, Chart Watchers, written by Arthur Hill.
The S&P 500 got a two day bounce last week and a nice surge on Thursday, but fell back Friday as it met resistance at 1650, which is now the short-term level to beat. Overall, notice that the index formed a falling flag type correction the last four weeks. After a sharp advance from mid April to mid May, the index was overbought and ripe for a rest. The falling flag provided this rest and alleviated oversold conditions with a modest pullback. Notice how broken resistance in the 1600 area turned into support.
Click this image for a live chart
The flag is still falling and has yet to be confirmed as a bullish continuation pattern. A falling flag also took shape in September-October 2012. Instead of breaking out for a continuation higher, the index broke the lower trend line and plunged in November. This decline retraced 61.80% of the prior advance before finding support and reversing. The bears have a short-term edge as long as this flag falls, which means further weakness is possible. The March-April lows and 38.2% retracement mark next support in the 1540-1550 area. An upside breakout at 1650 would take this downside target off the radar and project a move to new highs.
Good golf and good trading!
--Arthur Hill CMT
The S&P 500 got a two day bounce last week and a nice surge on Thursday, but fell back Friday as it met resistance at 1650, which is now the short-term level to beat. Overall, notice that the index formed a falling flag type correction the last four weeks. After a sharp advance from mid April to mid May, the index was overbought and ripe for a rest. The falling flag provided this rest and alleviated oversold conditions with a modest pullback. Notice how broken resistance in the 1600 area turned into support.
Click this image for a live chart
The flag is still falling and has yet to be confirmed as a bullish continuation pattern. A falling flag also took shape in September-October 2012. Instead of breaking out for a continuation higher, the index broke the lower trend line and plunged in November. This decline retraced 61.80% of the prior advance before finding support and reversing. The bears have a short-term edge as long as this flag falls, which means further weakness is possible. The March-April lows and 38.2% retracement mark next support in the 1540-1550 area. An upside breakout at 1650 would take this downside target off the radar and project a move to new highs.
Good golf and good trading!
--Arthur Hill CMT
Friday, June 14, 2013
Oil-vey
For several months now, we have been highlighting the fact that the price of crude oil has been in an entrenched downtrend where each rally has ended with a lower high. That all changed today, though. With an intraday high of $98.25, the price of WTI crude oil hit its highest level of the year, taking out prior highs from May and late March, as well as the previous high for the year from 1/30 by a penny.
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